According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin dropped almost 11% in August, slightly under the 13.88% drop in the same month in 2022. The outlook for September is not promising, either. Bitcoin (BTC) prices have fallen every September since 2017.
Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, is even more pessimistic than I am about Bitcoin. If there is a "global economic reset," McGlone told Kitco News, the price of Bitcoin may fall to as low as $10,000.
Analysts have been issuing bullish and bearish price targets, but before making any major wagers, it is best to wait for the price to break out of the range. After a period of low volatility, volatility typically increases, but the direction of the subsequent breakout is often uncertain.
Is there evidence of a breakout for Bitcoin and the other major altcoins? Where should one focus their attention? To find out, let's look at some statistics.
PRICE ANALYSIS OF THE S&P 500 INDEX
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) made a bearish crossover below its moving averages on August 24, but the selling pressure quickly dissipated.
After the index bounced back on August 25, bulls kept up their buying and returned it to its average. If buyers push through this barrier, the S&P 500 index may go higher to test the area of 4,607 to 4,650. This area will probably have a fierce conflict between bulls and bears.
A price reversal below the moving averages would indicate that bears are tenaciously protecting the level. After that, the pair might drop to its critical support level of $4,325. A bearish head-and-shoulders pattern in the index would be completed on a breakdown here. That can set off a reversal that eventually reaches the pattern target 4,043.
PRICE ANALYSIS OF THE US DOLLAR INDEX
The downturn may be nearing its end when bulls pushed the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) above the downtrend line on August 22.
On August 23, the bears attempted to drag the price below the mark, but the bulls stood firm. That the bulls were successful in making the downtrend line into support is indicated by this price action.
The next target for the bulls will be 106. The relative strength index (RSI) is close to the overbought area, and the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) has been increasing to 103, both of which favor buyers.
Bears must act fast to make a return and pull the price back below the downtrend line. If they take that action, the index might fall to 102, which is its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
PRICE ANALYSIS OF BITCOIN
Bitcoin's price remains stable between $24,800 and $26,833, with neither the bulls nor the bears willing to place huge wagers.
Bears are in control, as evidenced by the oversold RSI and the downward slope of the moving averages. But since bulls are anticipated to vigorously defend the $24,800 level, sellers may find it tough to resume the downward slide.
If Bitcoin/Tether prices recover after touching support, it will signal that the pair is likely to remain rangebound for some time. A breakout above $26,833 would signal strength on the upside. As a result, the price might rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($28,806) and then over $30,000.
But if prices drop below $24,800 and fail to recover, that might signal the beginning of a new downward trend that could take prices as low as $20,000.
PRICE ANALYSIS OF ETHER
The fact that Ether (ETH) prices have been hovering around $1,626 shows that sellers have not let up.
The possibility of a decline falling below $1,626 has increased due to the bulls' inability to launch a powerful rebound. If that occurs, the value of one Ether in U.S. Dollars may fall to $1,550. The bulls may decide to buy in force at this price.
A bullish reversal from here, followed by a decline to $1,626, would indicate that the bears had turned the level into resistance. That might trigger a decline to around $1,368. For the bulls to stage a return, the price must close above the 20-day exponential moving average ($1,716).
Attempts by bears to convert support at $220 into resistance on a BNB (BNB) decline have met with selling.
The Bulls have kept much ground from $220, so that's a plus. This indicates that demand is still strong. For the bulls to launch a relief rally to the resistance line, they must first break through the resistance at the 20-day EMA ($223). The bears may resume their aggressive selling at this level.
The $213 price level represents initial downside support. If this level fails, the BNB/USDT pair may fall to the $200 psychological level. The next significant support is around $183 if this level is breached.
PRICE ANALYSIS OF XRP
The bears' inability to drive XRP (XRP) over $0.56 in price points to a lack of demand at these levels.
Bears may be tempted to sell aggressively in response to the feeble rebound of $0.50. The most important support for the XRP/USDT pair is $0.41 in case the $0.50 level breaks. Bulls may be forced to buy at this level. A price bounce off this support indicates the pair may continue to move sideways between $0.41 and $0.56 for the next several days.
On the other hand, the beginning of a persistent rebound would be indicated if the price turned higher and broke over $0.56. Once that happens, the 50-day simple moving average ($0.64) could be in sight.
PRICE ANALYSIS OF CARDANO
The price of Cardano (ADA) has been quite stable over the previous few days, moving between $0.24 and $0.28. The bulls appear to be making purchases at the support level, while the bears appear to be making sales near the resistance level.
With enough buying pressure, the ADA/USDT pair might begin a rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($0.29) if it breaks over the $0.28 resistance level. A break above that mark might send the pair soaring toward $0.34.
The bears have different ideas. They'll try to hold off the sellers at the range's upper limit, $0.24. The pair might fall to $0.22 or $0.20 if this support zone collapses.
PRICE ANALYSIS OF DOGECOIN
Trading in Dogecoin (DOGE) has been contained between the 20-day exponential moving average ($0.07) and the firm support at $0.06.
The RSI is in the red, and the 20-day EMA is trending down, both signs suggesting that bears control the situation. The sellers aim to push the price below $0.06 and bolster their position.
The Bulls have very little time left. The price needs to be driven fast above the 20-day EMA if they are to initiate a rebound. If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT exchange rate might rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($0.07) and then surge to $0.08.
PRICE ANALYSIS OF SOLANA
The gradual decline in Solana (SOL) suggests that bears seize every opportunity to buy on a temporary reprieve.
The SOL/USDT exchange rate may go as low as $19.35 on the trading day of August 22. If this support gives way, selling pressure will increase, sending the pair tumbling under $18 and possibly even $15.60.
If the price reverses direction and rises beyond $22.30, it will be a sign of strong buying at lower prices, contradicting the prior premise. Possible targets for buyers include the 50-day simple moving average ($23.61) and the $26 level of resistance.
PRICE ANALYSIS OF POLKADOT
Bears will likely put up a fight if the Bulls try to force Polkadot (DOT) above the $4.64 resistance level represented by the 20-day exponential moving average.
A reversal below the 20-day EMA would indicate further bearish sentiment and sell-offs on price rallies. That may make a retest of the critical support at $4.22 more likely. If this stability allows, the DOT/USDT falls to $4 and even lower to $3.88.
However, a bigger relief rally to the breakdown of $5 would be signaled if buyers pushed the price over the 20-day EMA. Bears may be tempted to sell at this price.
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